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Nigeria’s crude oil production generated an estimated market value of N52.12tn between January and September 2026, with international oil prices contributing significantly to the worth of the country’s output during the period.
An analysis of monthly production figures and crude oil prices showed that Nigeria produced approximately 402.86 million barrels within the nine-month period. The output was valued at about $39.15bn before conversion to naira at an exchange rate of N1,331 to the dollar.
Monthly production figures showed fluctuations throughout the period. Nigeria produced 45.26 million barrels in January, while February recorded the lowest volume at 36.68 million barrels. Production subsequently increased to 42.78 million barrels in March and 44.70 million barrels in April.
Output rose further to 47.43 million barrels in May before reaching 46.80 million barrels in June. The country recorded 46.81 million barrels in July, followed by 46.50 million barrels in August and 45.90 million barrels in September.
April recorded the highest estimated market value, with crude oil production worth approximately N7.54tn. September followed with an estimated N7.16tn, while February had the lowest valuation at about N3.53tn.
International market developments played a major role in determining the value of the country’s oil output. The price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude benchmark increased from $68.05 per barrel in January to $106.09 in March, reaching a peak of $126.71 in April amid heightened tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Prices subsequently declined to $112.63 per barrel in May and $88.24 in June following a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington. However, the benchmark climbed again to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September after the ceasefire collapsed.
Despite the substantial valuation, the N52.12tn figure represents the estimated gross market worth of crude oil produced by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers. It does not represent the amount received by the Federal Government, as production expenses, taxes, royalties, contractual obligations and other deductions were not accounted for.
The Federal Government’s 2026 budget was based on an assumed daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar. The difference between these assumptions and prevailing international prices has increased the potential market value of Nigeria’s crude output, although actual government earnings will depend on production volumes and the fiscal arrangements governing the oil sector.
